Showing posts with label silver. Show all posts
Showing posts with label silver. Show all posts

Monday, 30 December 2013

Recap 2013: How equities, commodities, currencies performed

Riken Mehta

Follow me on Twitter @mehtariken 

After nearly a six-year wait, Indian equity benchmarks, the BSE 30-share Sensex and the NSE 50-share Nifty broke their record highs this year.  But that’s not it; 2013 saw a number of fresh multi-year record lows/highs both on the macro and investment front.

Despite FIIs investing USD 20 billion in 2013, the index returns for FIIs in dollar terms is negative at 3.91 percent primarily due to rupee depreciation. The year 2013 has been more stock and sector specific with IT, pharma and FMCG leading the list of winners.

Let’s take a look at how various asset classes fared in the year 2013.

Developed markets versus Emerging markets

As seen from the table, benchmark indices of US, UK and Japan have given handsome double digit returns so far this year. The momentum in these markets may continue as major indices of US (barring Nasdaq) and UK (barring CAC) are trading at life-high. Nikkei is trading close to its 6 year high. Emerging markets have posted negative or single digit positive returns this year, underperforming developed markets.














Commodities

Gold has posted its biggest annual loss since 1981 as investors shifted their money from safe haven asset class to risky asset class like equities on the back of strong economic growth in developed countries. Brent Crude remained in a narrow band of USD 95-115 per barrel.



















Currencies

The domestic currencies of the emerging markets depreciated substantially this year on fears of tapering by the US Federal Reserve. The rupee depreciated to a record low of 69 levels making it one of the worst performing Asian currencies this year. Japanese yen on the other hand weakened to a five-year low on the back of loose monetary policy to spur growth in the economy.











Indian Indices

Monday, 25 November 2013

Long developed market indices (US, UK, Japan), short gold is trade of 2013 so far

Riken Mehta

Follow me on Twitter @mehtariken 
Loose monetary policies by the central governments of major developed markets have made a substantial impact on various asset classes (equities, debts, commodities and currencies) around the globe this year. The major bond buying programs were aimed to kick start the struggling economy but made its way into risky assets like equities. The successful trade of 2013 so far is “long developed market equities, short bullion.”
As seen from the table, benchmark indices of US, UK and Japan have given handsome double digit returns so far this year. The momentum in these markets may continue as major indices of US (barring Nasdaq) and UK (barring CAC) are trading at life-high. Nikkei is trading close to its 5 ½ year high. Emerging markets have posted negative or single digit positive returns this year, underperforming developed markets.
Gold which was considered to be safe haven has lost its sheen (down 26%). Investors have dumped gold as US economy rebounds and the yellow metal is now trading merely 5 percent above its three-year low price touched earlier this year. Silver - more volatile than gold has lost 35% so far this year.
Developed Markets
US
UK
Japan
Indices Dow Jones NASDAQ S&P 500 DAX CAC FTSE Nikkei
YTD Returns% 
22.59%
32.20% 26.54% 18.52% 14.59% 10.73% 43.91%

Emerging Markets Brazil Russia India China Indonesia
Indices Bovespa RTS Nifty Shanghai Jakarta
YTD Returns%  -13.37% -5.37% 1.53% -3.21% 0.03%

Bullion Gold Silver
YTD Returns%  -26.17% -35.11%