Riken Mehta
Moneycontrol.com
Judging from the initial reaction of benchmark indices, President Barack Obama’s re-election appears to have struck the right chord among investors in India. But historical trends show that the Indian stock market has been largely indifferent to the outcome of Presidential polls in the US, except in 1996.
Interestingly, four out of five times in the past, the Sensex and the Dow Jones have moved in opposite directions after the Presidential elections threw up a winner. The Sensex surged 3.37% when Bill Clinton emerged victorious in 1992, but Dow Jones lost 0.90%. The US index gained 1.6% in 1996, when Clinton was re-elected as the the President. However, Sensex lost marginally after Clinton's re-election. Similarly in 2008, when Obama became the 44th US President, investors in India appeared more pleased, going by the upmove in the Sensex.
Refer to the table below to check out how Indian and the US markets reacted after US presidential polls.
| Year | US Presidential | Political | Electoral | US Presidential | Political | Electoral | Dow Jones | Sensex |
| Candidate Winner | Party | Votes Won | Candidate Loser | Party | Votes Won | |||
04-Nov-08
| Barack Obama (44th Pres) | Democratic |
365
| John McCain | Republican |
173
| -5.04% | 2.84% |
02-Nov-04
| George W. Bush (43rd) | Republican |
286
| John Kerry | Democratic |
251
| 1.01% | 0.87% |
07-Nov-00
| George W. Bush (43rd) | Republican |
271
| Al Gore | Democratic |
266
| -0.41% | 0.59% |
05-Nov-96
| Bill Clinton (42nd) | Democratic |
379
| Bob Dole | Republican |
159
| 1.58% | -0.96% |
03-Nov-92
| Bill Clinton (42nd) | Democratic |
370
| George H.W. Bush | Republican |
168
| -0.90% | 3.37% |
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